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29.03.12
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A Promising Farewell
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By Dan Peleschuk
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As his time in office dwindles, President Dmitry Medvedev seems intent on following up on his proposed reforms and maintaining a dialogue with the non-systemic opposition. Though ostensibly dedicated to the cause of opening up the political system before President-elect Vladimir Putin takes over in May, experts speculate whether Medvedev’s intentions are actually genuine – or whether he’s setting the stage for what’s to come.
After the downturn in protest momentum and amidst opposition leaders’ urges to undertake more grassroots political work, the protesters who had taken to the streets earlier this winter have perhaps tempered their expectations in regard to any meaningful openings in the political system. Several leaders have acknowledged that street protests are merely a passing phase, and that the rest of the work comes in the form of a prolonged battle for political power.
To this end, Medvedev has surprisingly extended an olive branch to the fledgling opposition – first by meeting with several representatives, then by offering a bill that will ease party registration and, most recently, by offering to bring the non-systemic opposition back into the system. According to Kommersant, Medvedev noted on March 27 that he believes there shouldn’t be a non-systemic opposition in Russia, and that “the country's political leadership must communicate regularly with representatives of political forces, not only with those parties that are represented in the Duma.”
Seemingly backing up his words with deeds, Medvedev has championed a bill loosening the party registration process, set to sail through the Federation Council soon. Yet critics have assaulted the move as an attempt to break up the opposition into a scattering of small parties, since Russian law still forbids the formation of party blocs in Parliament. “Can we call this bill a victory for common sense?” Sergei Mitrokhin, the leader of the liberal Yabloko Party, said recently at a Parliament session to which he was invited. “No, it’s not possible, since in other laws there are prohibitions on the creation of election blocs.”
Perhaps uncharacteristic of the quiet intellectual figure he has cut throughout his presidency, Medvedev also put his foot down in a rare show of sternness – hinting that his proposed party reform, widely considered the biggest concession yet by the Kremlin after the mass protests, is an ultimatum more than a gesture of good will. After the bill is passed into law, “the opposition can be tough, it can be radical, or it can be mild, but it still must be a legal opposition,” he said, adding: “those who do not comply with the law are criminals, and not opposition members,” Kommersant quoted Medvedev as saying.
Experts, meanwhile, said Medvedev’s tough talk only serves to further unsettle members of the opposition who doubted his true intentions for party reform and open dialogue. Noted blogger and political analyst Alexander Morozov said opposition leaders understand that the president’s plan is all part of “a rouse” from above. “If the party of power, United Russia, remains in place, there will be no chances for anyone else because they’ll be banished to the peripheries by this law on coalitions,” he said. “I think this will all be just a trick until the moment when the Kremlin announces that it no longer supports the entire system [of ‘managed democracy’] as a whole, including the party of power itself, which still commands all the administrative resources.”
Medvedev’s rhetoric may also be more self-serving than he lets on. Throughout the recent months, as the public protests raged and United Russia’s popularity plummeted steadily, the president’s future in Russian politics had been thrown into question. While Putin tentatively offered him the post of prime minister as part of the power swap last September, many have begun to claim that Medvedev’s political fortunes are quickly dissipating. Experts speculate that Medvedev’s unusual bargaining with the opposition might be an attempt to salvage what’s left of his political career.
According to political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin, a member of the president’s Council on Civil Society and Human Rights, Medvedev is focused on positioning himself as a “European liberal” – especially, he said, as the popularity of genuine opposition politicians grows over time and a fundamental overhaul of the system seems more likely. “He’s a young guy, and he’s now used to being a politician. He really believes that if he behaves himself, after six years they’ll allow him to be president,” he said. “In this sense, Medvedev needs to craft some sort of political position before his exit so that he won’t be forgotten, and so that he’ll remain a pleasant memory in the eyes of liberals.” |
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