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Analysis & Opinion
23.04.07 The Show Must Go On
By Ivor Crotty

Russian Economic Forum Opens in London.

Oscar Wilde famously commented that the only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about, and judging from the first day of the 10th annual Russian Economic Forum in London, the Kremlin has absorbed the lessons of this maxim. As the parties catering to "Moscow's jet set" ceded to rational economic and political analysis and the solemn commemoration of Boris Yeltsin's passing, it seemed that a shadow from elsewhere had been cast over the event.

The primary subject of discussion concerned those who did not – and perhaps would never again – come to the forum. It did not take long before the speculation surfaced of an ultimatum from the Kremlin, preventing influential political figures from attending the forum, held as always at London’s Queen Elizabeth II Center.

In his opening remarks, Hans Jorg Rudolf, chairman of Barclays Capital and a member of Rosneft’s board of directors, denied that he was effectively a member of "a club of Kremlin stooges." While he and other economists went through the now familiar motions in describing Russia's extraordinary economic success, he also defended the Kremlin's perceived heavy-handed meddling in the economy. "In post-war Germany, the heavy hand of the allied security forces was a necessary prerequisite for the re-establishment of law and order, particularly in business," he said.

Jean Lemierre, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), perhaps underscored Rudolf’s frankness when he added, somewhat contritely, that "Russia is changing, it’s obvious. Let’s avoid making a mistake, considering that the 1990s were difficult years and many of us may have to take some responsibility for this. If we are honest, we shouldn't forget it."

Rudolf also took the opportunity to castigate journalists for not printing the full story on Russia, instead focusing on shortages, negatives and bottlenecks. "The consistent and cheap criticism of Russia by journalists who clearly have no idea what is going on, is a constant thorn in the side of those who have Russia's best interests at heart," he said.

Shortly after his speech, Rudolf fielded a question from Geoffrey Smith, Dow Jones’ Russia bureau chief, who scolded the complacency of the gathered panel, citing systemic corruption, weak institutions, confusion surrounding the visa regime and the alarming frequency with which journalists in Russia have died as reasons why self-congratulatory statements from bankers should be avoided.

However, the significance of the exchange was obvious to many, given the absenteeism recorded at the forum that morning. The central point though, which may have been lost in the media spectacle that is the Russia Economic Forum, is that the event has been well attended, with standing room only in the plenary sessions and other full houses anticipated, particularly for Tuesday morning's BBC interview with State Duma Deputy and airline magnate Alexander Lebedev.

The announcement of Boris Yeltsin's death and the reminiscences about the man seemed for a while to compensate for the lack of government figures at Russia's premier international business event. In a packed auditorium, where a panel had just completed a set of discussions on Russia's development over the past 10 years, Boris Makarenko of the Center for Political Technologies stood up and informed the room of Yeltsin’s death. Panel chair and former British ambassador to Russia Roderick Lyne, a member of Altimo's International Advisory Board and special adviser to BP and HSBC, asked the room to stand in silence to commemorate "the man who brought freedom to Russia."

Despite the absence of government officials at the business and trade forum, it was quite clear to those in attendance that regardless of the presence of Kremlin-associated figures, business will carry on. It seems, in fact, that Russia’s regions, more than the federal center, have the most to gain by advertising at the forum, as the well-attended stands from Tatarstan and Irkutsk testify.

But the Russian Economic Forum should not be seen as an unending series of "fundamentals are sound" cliches being rolled out by the same investment bankers frequently quoted in the media. Politics was hotly debated when GQ Russia Editor Nikolai Uskov coolly posited his analysis of contemporary Russian society, which involved the debunking of the juxtaposition of material success with ideas of Russian spirituality.

Writer Viktor Erofeyev spoke of his concerns about Russia’s future beyond the country’s business prospects, opening his comments with the declaration: "There are few problems, if any, in the arena of economics." Erofeyev added a bleak interpretation of Russian political culture as his speech came to an end: "We are not European," he said. "Russia is an iceberg drifting away from the continent looking into a chasm, but I, for one, am not in favor of revolution, but of reform."

The attendance figures seem not to have been affected by the series of cancellations before the weekend, though they were often discussed during the opening coffee sessions. JP Morgan Vice President Vladimir Todres added that for many regular REF attendees, there has been a somewhat tangible "deterioration" in the types of people attending, though he was still anxious to see who would be participating in the seminars, adding that "it’s not what they say, but who is here that's important."
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