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26.04.07
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Predicting The Future
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By Dmitry Babich
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Elections in Krasnoyarsk Territory have often Proved Prescient for Determining National Outcomes
Krasnoyarsk Territory in Siberia is sometimes known as “Russia’s New Hampshire” because of its tendency to produce election results that are very close to nationwide outcomes. In mid-April, the residents of Krasnoyarsk went to the polls to elect a regional legislature, and this election served as the last testing ground for Russia’s parties to gather their forces before the State Duma elections in December.
Three major indicators came out of the Krasnoyarsk poll. First, while the four parties already represented in the State Duma managed to win seats in the local parliament, the Union of Right Forces (SPS), which represents moderate liberal opposition to President Vladimir Putin, will also take part in the newly elected Krasnoyarsk Duma. Secondly, there is growing animosity between the social-democratic Just Russia and the Communist party (KPRF), which are vying for the votes of the burgeoning leftist electorate. Finally, the regional elite – which in Russia’s regions is usually grouped around the local branch of United Russia – came out in force in Krasnoyarsk; United Russia received 42 percent of the vote.
All of these developments allow for the possibility that 04-5 parties will be represented in the new State Duma, although United Russia will be the undisputed leader. However, United Russia may not have the absolute majority it enjoys in the current Duma.
The success of United Russia in Krasnoyarsk cannot be attributed only to the fact that regional governor Alexander Khloponin is a party member. The local business community, which in Krasnoyarsk includes such giants as Norilsk Nickel and RusAl, also threw its support behind United Russia, placing representatives of big companies on United Russia’s electoral list. Before the changes in legislation that determined governors would be appointed rather than elected, Norilsk and RusAl frequently locked horns in protracted electoral fights. Now, instead of fighting each other, both companies support United Russia, the party of power, considering it as the best possible defender of business interests.
“In Siberia and areas of the Far North the big companies are usually the biggest political players because they are the only viable employers for the local workforce and providers for the local budget,” says Alexei Tarasov, a former correspondent for Izvestia newspaper in Krasnoyarsk region. This is not, however, to downplay the role of Khloponin in assuring his party’s positive results. Khloponin was elected regional governor in 2002, standing in the election as a representative of Interros, the investment company that owns Norilsk Nickel. During the Duma elections in 2003, when Khloponin “inherited” the region from his predecessor, the amount of votes for United Russia was only 30 percent, a smaller percentage than in any other large region. This should not have come as a surprise to the political elite, however, since the region was burdened with a huge debt and the territory’s economic problems prompted protest voting.
The fight for today’s protest votes led to a strange confrontation between Just Russia and KPRF. Just Russia leader Sergei Mironov accused the communists of coming in second place only “thanks to the unscrupulous cooperation of [the communists’] leaders with criminal circles.”
Mironov was obviously hinting at links between the local communists and Anatoly Bykov, the former owner of aluminum plant KrAZ, who was sentenced in 2002 to 6 years in prison for organizing the murder of a business partner. The sentence was suspended after Bykov agreed to sell his stock in KrAZ to RusAl’s owner Oleg Deripaska. Bykov, despite being rumored to have had connections to criminal world in 1980s and 1990s, enjoyed certain popular support in Krasnoyarsk, positioning himself as an alternative to the big companies controlling the local economy and politics. A secret alliance between Bykov and the local KPRF cannot be excluded since Bykov’s damaged reputation will hardly win him a place on United Russia’s list.
“Give us freedom. Why should [deputy head of the presidential administration Vladislav] Surkov decide everything for the people?” Bykov was quoted as saying in the Russian edition of Newsweek.
However, even if cooperation between Bykov and the communists does take place, they would be unwilling to acknowledge it for fear of subjecting themselves not only to Mironov’s criticism, but also to big companies’ ire.
“Mironov said a lot of stupid things lately, but this one is a stupidity bordering on poshlost (extremely bad taste),” said KPRF leader Gennady Zyuganov. The Krasnoyarsk branch of the KPRF has promised to bring Mironov to account for his statements in court.
Mironov, who besides being the leader of Just Russia is also the chairman of the Federation Council, said he was ready to prove his accusations with facts. Meanwhile, Just Russia’s leaders increased their criticism of the KPRF, presenting it as a totalitarian extremist party that has no place in Russia’s modern left.
“The people who celebrate Stalin’s birthday every year have nothing in common with modern socialism,” said Irina Rukina, a member of Just Russia’s Central Council. “They are just a nice sparring partner for United Russia, which uses budget money for its electoral campaign giving people ‘presents’ in the form of new hospitals or stadiums, which United Russia’s leaders, as government officials, have to build anyway. We are the real left.”
Interestingly, even the Union of Right Forces (SPS) engaged in socialist rhetoric during the Krasnoyarsk election, demanding a fairer distribution of the privatization income and more social support for the poor, especially pensioners. “Since young people do not come to vote, we have to lure the elderly voters,” said SPS leader Nikita Belykh.
In the opinion of Leonyi Byzov, an expert at the All-Russia Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM), the leftist turn in Russian public opinion began in late 1990s and parties are now rushing to profit from it. “Now that Russia is full of petrodollars, even those people whose financial situation has improved since 1999 feel like the big money is flowing into someone else’s hands, and that fuels leftist sentiment,” Byzov said.
In a way, Krasnoyarsk represents the microcosm of Russia’s current political and electoral system: an energetic ruler relying on a strong “party of power,” which enjoys the support of big business, balanced by a leftist opposition, whose main objective is to quench the public’s thirst for social justice by angry invectives against the “oligarchs” and demands for more social aid. |
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