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01.08.07
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Russia Receives Abbas
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By Paul Abelsky
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Palestinian President in Town as Russian Links to Hamas Downgraded
Peacemaking in the Middle East caught a second wind in recent weeks, in response to continued setbacks after Palestinian infighting in June and escalating tensions in the region as a whole. Palestinian Authority President Mahmud Abbas' visit to Moscow was another incremental step toward forging a consensus on a course of action in Palestine.
Russia has carved out an unusual role in the peace process between Israelis and Palestinians, both as an aspiring independent powerbroker with ties to the Islamist group Hamas and as a member of the so-called Quartet, which also includes the United States, the European Union and the United Nations. The clashes that erupted in the Gaza Strip six weeks ago resulting in a Hamas takeover of the area have left Palestine politically divided and the Hamas leadership more isolated than ever before. Abbas dismissed the Hamas-led government after the group seized control of Gaza.
After Russia's overture to Hamas last spring, which included a contentious visit to Moscow of the group's leadership from Gaza and Syria, Russian diplomats have continued to buck the Quartet's line aimed at boycotting the group. In light of the rift in Palestinian politics, and emerging initiatives from American and Arab negotiators, Abbas reportedly came to Moscow to gauge Russia's commitment to Hamas and to get an appraisal of U.S. President George W. Bush's recently proposed peace conference on the Middle East. To stress the importance of the visit to Moscow, the Palestinian delegation included the two chief negotiators with Israel.
This is the first meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Abbas since the recent severance of ties with Hamas and the fifth meeting overall. Abbas made Russia the first non-Arab country he visited after his election in January 2005. Immediately after his consultations in Moscow, Abbas will meet with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who is embarking on a tour of the Middle East.
Both in Abbas's Monday talks with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and yesterday's meeting in the Kremlin with Putin, Russian officials strongly backed the Palestinian president's "lawful" government but insisted that a solution must be found to bring together the opposed Palestinian camps and avoid further isolation of Hamas.
A statement posted on the Russian Foreign Ministry's website recounted Lavrov's telephone conversation with Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Khaled Mashaal on July 26, stating that the "sides discussed the situation in the Palestinian territories" and confirmed Mashaal's readiness to resume dialogue with Abbas's Fatah movement. Nonetheless, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced after yesterday's meeting in the Kremlin that it is lessening contacts with Hamas.
"Recently, we have somewhat downgraded the level of contact with Hamas," First Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Denisov told journalists. "Now we are pursuing the pragmatic goal of trying to influence them directly and indirectly to resume national unity."
Putin reiterated after the talks, however, his hopes for bringing the militant organization into the fold. "I want to assure you that Russia will support you as the legitimate leader of the Palestinian people," he told Abbas. "I am convinced that you will do everything to restore the unity of the Palestinian people."
For his part, Abbas thanked the Russian president and stressed the importance of the bilateral relationship with Russia. "We know your unwavering position regarding the Palestinian administration and Palestinian unity, and we have always sought to achieve the unity of our people to create an independent Palestinian state," he said.
In calibrating its approach to the Middle East, Russia is reacting to Hamas's failure to play a constructive role after its show of force in Palestinian parliamentary elections last year. A violent feud with Fatah has added to the organization's staunch and notorious anti-Israeli stance.
"Nothing drastic has changed in Russia's outlook," said Yevgeny Satanovsky, president of the Institute for Israel and Middle East Studies in Moscow. "It has maintained contacts with Hamas but always treated Abbas as a positive figure. But Hamas has failed to take advantage of the window of opportunity opened by Russia's mediation efforts."
Although Russia has come in for widespread criticism for its high-level consultations with Hamas, the contacts have not been without benefits, Satanovsky added. The evacuation of Russian citizens from the Gaza Strip following the outbreak of hostilities in June required a coordination of Russian efforts both with Hamas and Israeli contingents. "That operation alone justifies the association with Hamas," said the analyst.
Besides exchanging assurances of mutual support during the Moscow talks with Abbas, Russia has pledged to provide unspecified humanitarian support and finalized the agreement to supply 50 BTR-70 armored personnel carriers to authorities in the West Bank, although the initial Russian offer was made several years ago. Denisov noted that military provisions represent not a sale but Russia's contribution to the "upholding of law and order" in the area.
Russia has long retreated from the Soviet Union's role as the chief purveyor of military hardware to many Arab regimes, but extending material assistance at present is imperative if it aspires to a greater role as a mediator. From the Russian point of view, the Middle East could be an important staging ground for the country's emergent geopolitical might. "The region is strategically crucial for Russia, particularly if it wants to have a say as a major power in global affairs," said Alexander Konovalov, director of the Institute of Strategic Evaluations, a Moscow-based think tank. "It is becoming increasingly clear that Russia cannot be sidestepped in solving a single one of world's urgent problems."
Whether Russia is pursuing a particular agenda in the Middle East is less clear. "We lack a coherent, well thought-out policy but understand the larger purpose behind our involvement," Konovalov said. "Russia shares everyone's vision of peace in the Middle East and supports the emergence of a viable Palestinian state that could coexist with Israel. There is now a realization that laying a wager on Hamas has backfired. Its role in Gaza has raised serious misgivings, and receiving Abbas shows Russia's willingness to cooperate with the lawful Palestinian government."
Besides the relationship with Hamas, Russia’s other untapped resources include the Russian-speaking immigrants comprising about one fifth of Israel’s population and represent an influential voting bloc. In some respects, Konovalov says, Russia is uniquely positioned to act flexibly and make political progress on matters that are off limits to other key players in the peace process. "It is the only power that can reach out to Fatah and Hamas at the same time without losing face," he said. "After all, both exist and must be dealt with. The way forward is not further boycott but efforts to moderate Hamas's extremism."
Satanovsky is far more skeptical, however, that the so-called peace process is anything more than an anachronistic political sideshow. The Middle East is a place where retired foreign leaders like Tony Blair or American presidents late in their term in office turn to secure a reputation in foreign policy. A certain prestige comes with playing an outsized role in regional mediation, and such motives have undoubtedly driven Russia's own recent overtures. That none of the countless peace proposals and counteroffers have succeeded only highlights that the resolution hinges on finding an unlikely consensus inside the region. Outside counsel is welcome but irrelevant.
"The Palestinian project has failed but world powers are unable or unwilling to admit it," Satanovsky said. "Palestine lacks all the basic economic, political and infrastructure levers to lift it to any viable statehood. But too much depends on this conflict for the careers of foreign statesmen; too many resources have been wasted to admit outright failure. We are likely to be hearing lots of virtuous but meaningless words from them for a long time to come." |
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