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07.08.07
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Putin For NATO
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Comment by Vladimir Frolov
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A Position in International Security for the Russian President?
Predicting the next place of employment for President Putin, after he leaves office in 2008 as required by the Russian Constitution, has become a growing cottage industry in Russia and the West.
Many options have been thrown around; all assuming that Putin would have to retain a position of influence on the Russian political landscape in order to return to the presidency, if the nation calls upon him, in 2012.
The Speaker of the Federation Council Sergey Mironov (who he ran for president in 2004 just to keep Putin company in the race) publicly declared that Putin will be Russia’s President again in 2012.
To while away the free time from 2008 to 2012, as his caretaker successor runs the country along the lines firmly established by its second president, Putin could choose from a variety of positions. Those most often mentioned focus on domestic functions – Leader of the United Russia Party, Speaker of the Duma or Federation Council, Chairman of the Supreme Court,
President of the State Council or the revamped Security Council, or even Mayor of Moscow.
However, it seems to me highly unlikely that Putin, an unquestioned national leader with genuine massive support, would want to assume a public position in Russia that would directly subordinate him to the new president, whose election as his successor Putin would help engineer. Putin would dwarf any Russian politician long after he leaves office.
Idling out four years as a “powerful private citizen”, as has been suggested by the Kremlin’s spin doctors, is equally unlikely to appeal to Putin. What will he do as “a powerful private citizen”? Go on a public lecture tour? Write a book?
The international stage may look much more attractive for the retiring Russian president. I think Putin wants to go global after his retirement. There have been suggestions what this might entail.
A recent report from the pro-Kremlin Center for Political Situations suggests that Putin would continue to exercise considerable sway in Russian and international politics by staying very active in the energy sector. This could involve, in progressive order, becoming chairman of Gazprom; chairman of an energy super giant composed through the merger of state-controlled Gazprom with state-controlled Rosneft; president of a gas OPEC comprising the largest gas-producing states like Qatar, Iran, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan; or President of a new confederate Energy State to be composed of Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
It is hard for me to fathom that Putin, having enjoyed the thrills and the burden of responsibilities of being a G8 leader, would be satisfied with the chairmanship of an international corporation, even one as large and powerful as Gazprom. He is clearly interested in and immerses himself in the details of global energy policy, but a gas OPEC might be an idea whose time will never come, while a Confederacy of Petro-States puts Putin into a company he clearly does not want to keep for any extended period of time.
Others suggested that Putin might choose to run for president of the International Olympic Committee to welcome the Winter Games in Sochi in 2014. Why not? But I think Putin wants to be much more active and much more politically relevant in his retirement than a guy inspecting Olympic stadiums.
Former U.S. President Bill Clinton uses his considerable charm and international celebrity status to raise much needed money to fight the global AIDS epidemic, particularly in Africa. Putin might equally choose to champion the international crusade against other life-threatening diseases like cancer or tuberculosis. Perhaps, but probably not Putin’s first choice.
A recent example was set by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair when he became the UN’s Special Envoy for the Middle East with the thankless task of brokering a comprehensive Arab-Israeli settlement also gives Putin some options, as there are plenty of intractable conflicts in the world, including in the former Soviet Union, that could use some big-gun international mediation.
I have an idea to put forward as well – elect Vladimir Putin Secretary General of NATO.
There are many advantages to the plan.
Putin clearly has a taste for international affairs and international security policy. His forceful speech at a conference in Munich last February was a clear indication that Putin seeks an international role that would transcend his presidency. He wants to make the world a better and more secure place.
A prominent international role would satisfy Putin’s ambition to remain influential in his own country yet continue to influence the shape of the world.
He also craves recognition from the West for his role in transforming Russia from a failed state into a booming energy and consumer market superpower that woos Western businessmen with unrivaled opportunities for making money. Like Peter the Great, Putin is a Russian modernizer who wants to bring Russia closer to the West, but on terms that are unquestionably favorable to Russia.
Putin might at this point be a little wary of NATO’s intentions, suspecting the alliance of planning to work against Russia’s interests. Would there be a better way for the West to dispel those concerns than to entrust the leadership of the alliance to Putin so that he could judge for himself? After all, if Putin were to return to the Russian presidency four years from now, it could be a very smart investment on the part of NATO to transform its relationship with Russia.
Russia and NATO would clearly benefit from a closer security alliance, perhaps in the form of a special treaty that spells out mutual security obligations. This alliance would help bring Russia into the Western security framework without undermining the internal cohesiveness of NATO and without infringing on Russia’s sovereignty.
Russia and the alliance would put to rest the existing disagreements over NATO enlargement, or U.S. ABM deployment in Eastern Europe which currently threatens the strategic relationship.
By forming an alliance with NATO, Putin would force his successor and the Russian military to expedite reforms in the Russian security structure and develop a more pragmatic military doctrine that focuses on new, more relevant threats, as opposed to cold war legacies.
NATO today is a rusting cold war defense structure in search of a strategic mission. In trying to rediscover it NATO sometimes suggests ideas that border on the ridiculous – like the recent suggestion to engage in providing “energy security.” It needs bold and visionary leadership that has not been forthcoming lately from a succession of lackluster Secretary Generals. Putin would provide NATO with a mission – building a lasting and effective security alliance with Russia to extend the Euro-Atlantic community from Vancouver to Vladivostok.
NATO also needs to find a new balance between the security responsibilities of the United States and those of Europe. NATO’s military structure is an odd couple comprising the U.S. military giant and Europe’s military dwarf. By bringing Russia closer to NATO and sharing some of the security responsibilities with the Russian military, Putin would help NATO find a more equitable military structure where Europe would have a larger say.
Putin today is perhaps the most dynamic, experienced and charismatic world leader. He is an accomplished communicator and would bring a fresh coolness to NATO. His English and French have improved so much that the entire International Olympic Committee crooned during his bilingual speech at the recent meeting in Guatemala City and gave the 2014 Winter Olympics to Sochi.
Of course, the plan titled “Putin for NATO” has but one defect – it is unbelievable. Russia is not a member of NATO and cannot nominate Putin for the post.
But what if Putin’s candidacy is put forward by a member of the alliance, say, Germany?
After all, he was once called “a German in the Kremlin”. |
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