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12.09.07
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The Candidate Of Last Resort
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By Paul Abelsky
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Can Krasnodar Governor Alexander Tkachev Use Sochi as a Springboard?
The victory of Sochi’s 2014 Olympic bid had many fathers, with President Vladimir Putin getting the lion’s share of the credit for nudging Russia’s Black Sea resort past its competitors to win the games. At a local level, however, few names were as closely identified with Sochi’s unlikely feat as that of Krasnodar Governor Alexander Tkachev. The transformation of Sochi may become the most visible legacy of Putin’s reign, but it could also serve as an opportune springboard for Tkachev’s presidential prospects.
Tkachev, 47, has long been seen as one of the most promising and ambitious regional leaders in line for the country’s top post. Putin’s recent hint that his successor could come from the current gubernatorial roster has led many observers to wonder if Tkachev will finally cash in on his populist record and emerging nationwide prominence. Yevgeny Minchenko, head of the International Center of Political Expertise in Moscow, lists Tkachev as one of the three most probable presidential hopefuls from the regions, along with Krasnoyarsk Governor Alexander Khloponin and Valentina Matviyenko, governor of St. Petersburg.
What sets Tkachev apart is the rising profile of Krasnodar Territory, which he has governed assertively since 2000. Besides his appealing pro-business stance and proven nationalistic credentials, the public attention centered on Sochi is likely to bolster Tkachev’s image at a national level. The Olympic Games may still be years away, but plentiful PR benefits can already be reaped from this success and the expectations that have come to accompany it. “The figure of the governor will grow in importance, particularly as local contacts with federal officials intensify,” said Mikhail Savva of the Southern Regional Resource Center and an influential commentator in Krasnodar. “It’s a project of colossal scale, and there are certain to be serious problems. How he handles them will reflect on his presidential standing.”
An article in Novaya Gazeta newspaper in July characterized Sochi as a new “national project,” similar in significance and public resonance to the four ambitious schemes set up by the federal government. Just as Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov, the two first deputy prime ministers long seen as the likeliest successors to Putin have been appointed to oversee large portions of the national projects initiative, so Tkachev has also been assigned the task of administering Sochi’s Olympic facelift.
Whether or not Tkachev is vaulted to the top in the months remaining before the March 2008 presidential ballot, he holds unique advantages that could further his place on the domestic political scene. Perhaps the least appreciated aspect of his position is the year-round access he enjoys to Putin given the president’s fondness for vacationing in Sochi. Former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, a native of Stavropol region and later a party boss there, was famously able to build relationships with high-ranking Communist apparatchiks drawn to Stavropol’s sunny skies, a chapter of his biography that contributed to his rapid rise through the party ranks.
In Tkachev’s case, he has the benefit of a close relationship with Putin without the drawbacks of being seen as a Moscow bureaucrat tied up in the Kremlin’s clan rivalries. Savva says the frequent presidential outings in Sochi have meant that Tkachev gets more personal contact with Putin than most of the country’s top public figures.
Tkachev has already proven to be a United Russia party stalwart and a loyal advocate of Putin’s policy line. As the secretary of United Russia’s regional political council, Tkachev will top the party list for the upcoming State Duma elections. And that is despite his background in the Communist Party and his ties to the chauvinistic former Krasnodar Governor Nikolai Kondratenko, who remains a proud Communist.
United Russia has become the dominant force in Krasnodar Territory during Tkachev’s tenure. The party counts among its members 47 out of 48 leaders of territorial districts and around 70 percent of municipal and rural administrators. At a July United Russia conference in Krasnodar, Tkachev spoke fervently about his own party allegiance, but made clear that pragmatism is driving his close alignment with the federal center.
Pledging a commitment to improving the region’s socio-economic indicators, Tkachev said the coming electoral battles for the presidency, the State Duma and local legislature will help determine the continuity of Russia’s current political course. He credited United Russia and Putin personally for overcoming the disarray of the 1990s in an unprecedentedly short period of time and laying the foundation for future prosperity. The governor also warned those competing politicians who intend to woo the electorate with dubious promises against “rocking the boat” and deceiving the voters. As for the prospects of his own region, Tkachev made clear where he thinks its fortunes lie.
“Kuban has a real chance to become one of the most developed and richest parts of the country,” he said. “No one in this hall needs to be told that without like-minded partners, without strong support at a federal level, it would be much more difficult to achieve the same results. I mean the support both of the government of the Russian Federation and the State Duma, where the United Russia faction holds a majority.”
That Tkachev characterized Putin’s plan for Russia as a commitment to creating an effective model of governance and raising the standard of living for the population is indicative of how far he has moved away from the ideologically charged rhetoric of his early days in office.
After a career in the Komsomol and a stint as a director of a major agricultural plant, Tkachev entered public life in 1994 by running for a seat in the regional legislature and later rose through the ranks to become a Duma member. He was active in the Duma working groups on agricultural policy and ethnic relations and headed a committee charged with overseeing the reconstruction of Chechnya. When Governor Kondratenko declined to compete for another term in office, he supported Tkachev’s gubernatorial bid. Tkachev won with almost 82 percent of the vote and never looked back, following with a decisive re-election campaign in 2004. In April of this year, Putin reappointed him as governor of Krasnodar Territory, a decision that was overwhelmingly approved in the regional legislature.
Tkachev rules a region known both for its diversity and underlying ethnic tensions. The local political elite has never been reluctant to indulge in harsh nationalistic rhetoric, and Tkachev’s predecessor is remembered for the bigotry he broadcast. The present governor has frequently tapped this extremist resource in his embrace of the revived Kuban Cossacks and general intolerance toward ostracized ethnic groups. But Valery Kochergin, an expert on ethnic relations in Krasnodar, says Tkachev’s pragmatism helped to wean him from public displays of xenophobia.
“Despite the bigoted sensibilities of the electorate, Tkachev’s concern for the territory’s image and business reputation has meant that the governor has retreated from his previous positions,” Kochergin said. “Unlike Kondratenko, who was ideologically committed to politics of intolerance, Tkachev has taken a more flexible line.”
Tkachev has continued to act, however, with the federal government’s implicit sanction, as the mouthpiece for particularly forceful foreign policy maneuvers. He has taken positions that seem far from a gubernatorial portfolio, from recently discoursing on the border policy with Abkhazia to becoming enmeshed in a territorial row with Ukraine in 2003 over the island of Tuzla in the Black Sea’s Kerch Strait. Tkachev leapt to national prominence in particular with his vocal involvement in that conflict.
“His role in that episode had to be coordinated with the federal government,” Savva said. “It’s not the type of question that a governor takes upon himself to contend. But given Krasnodar’s frontier status, its governor becomes an instrument of foreign policy, and the Kremlin is likely to delegate to him some significant tasks.”
Ultimately, for all the immediate factors contributing to Tkachev’s rise, the strategic location of Krasnodar territory is enough to advance the ambitions of any governor. A convergence of key transport infrastructure, vital agricultural resources, a favorable climate and access to southern Europe have traditionally lent the densely settled region a considerable measure of national importance. Its investment potential ranks behind only Moscow and St. Petersburg, with Sochi fast becoming the site of major federal objectives.
Combined with his personal charisma, Tkachev’s current status meets all the preconditions for giving added weight to his possible presidential bid. The governor himself has never aired his ambitions, and the administration’s press service refuses to comment on the matter. Given the byzantine nature of the succession process, however, keeping silence is undoubtedly the right approach.
Whether Tkachev’s brand of governance is right for Russia is another question. He has certainly shown to be a flexible – or conformist – politician in accommodating the electoral mood swings. Showing little reluctance to cater to his voters’ more ignoble sensibilities, he has become a convert to pro-business principles and an advocate of centralized rule.
The concentration of power in Krasnodar rankles many local businessmen and observers, although few are willing to go public with such sentiments. During a recent trip to Krasnodar, officials at the regional administration admitted to a growing concern within the governor’s inner circle over excessive restraints on press freedoms and similar drawbacks of the current policies.
Another rumor that has accompanied Tkachev’s last few years in office is hearsay accounts of a mysterious and grave illness. He has been sporadically hospitalized and appeared in public looking unwell. Additionally, the matter is never publicly discussed by Tkachev or his entourage, spawning ever more speculation. Last year, his imminent departure from office was widely rumored. The truth will have to come out if the governor is openly invited to join the list of presidential hopefuls. |
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