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13.09.07
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Media Turbulence
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By Paul Abelsky
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Russia's Press Searches for Meaning in Suprise Nomination
Yesterday’s sudden cabinet reshuffle sent Russian media into overdrive. Making up for lack of facts and clarity with allegorical readings of the event, the reporters and pundits peered deep between the lines of Viktor Zubkov’s appointment to the prime ministerial post. As Sergei Buntman, commentator on Ekho Moskvy radio station, noted yesterday, the cabinet turnover was interpreted in every possible way by Russia’s commentariat – in every way, that is, except for as a straightforward cabinet turnover.
Vremya Novostei surveyed Zubkov’s professional path and concluded that his selection was, in retrospect, all but inevitable. His low public profile was simply an added advantage. Looking back at Zubkov’s near election in March to the Federation Council, the upper chamber of the Russian parliament, from the Omsk Region, the odd sequence of events that led to the derailing of his campaign has come to be seen in a new light. Although United Russia’s general council had already backed his candidacy, at the last moment the former soccer star Dmitry Alenichev replaced Zubkov: “The reasons for the ‘swap’ of the candidates were never explained. But now it is clear why – perhaps even then the president had already made a decision about the fate of his old acquaintance.”
The long-rumored change at the top created an expectant mood among Kremlinologists everywhere, but the secrecy and overwhelming efficiency with which the maneuver was carried out, and the surprising choice of Zubkov, made it seem like President Vladimir Putin has outsmarted even the most informed members of his entourage. “The strict conspiratorial technique, which has accompanied almost major personnel decision of Putin’s time, never malfunctioned,” said a lead article on Gazeta.ru.
As everyone soon noted, Zubkov has long belonged to Putin’s inner circle, dating back to the days when he mentored the future president who was then just a KGB colonel fleeing the collapsing secret services. They later worked together in the St. Petersburg mayoralty, when Putin reportedly looked up to Zubkov and sought out his counsel. But Zubkov’s chief advantage over other candidates for the post, according to Gazeta.ru, was his lack of political ambitions. He could thus serve as a perfect “intermediary link,” allowing Putin triumphantly to reclaim the presidential throne in 2012, which the constitution would permit him to do. But he can also function as another “technical” premier minister in the manner of the departing Mikhail Fradkov, holding the seat through the turmoil of the electoral transition process.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta, the official government daily, emphasized that Putin has once more blindsided the legions of pundits who expected the person appointed as prime minister to become the de facto successor. The remaining months before the presidential ballot have not left much time to raise the rating of an entirely unknown figure, and Putin seemed to appreciate on his own example the swiftness with which a prime minister can scale the presidential heights.
Even the two hours that passed between Fradkov’s resignation and Zubkov’s appointment did not augur such a dramatic turn of events. As Rossiyskaya Gazeta put it, “all the political elite has been doing lately was trying to get a sense of the Kremlin’s slightest sentiments with regard to the coming presidential election, and Vladimir Putin has not made life much easier for the elites. Without even giving a hint of which successor he favors, the president once again signaled that a fervent commitment to any one candidate would be premature.”
The newspaper outlined three possible options Putin is facing. The first is to hold an election where several competing candidates would receive an equal measure of the Kremlin’s sanction. The downside is that with no clear favorite, public support for all could dissipate, leaving an outsider to take the throne. Another, more reliable scenario is for Putin to announce his preference days before the period of registration ends for the candidates. Finally, considering Putin’s comments yesterday, an even more likely course of events is an additional cabinet reshuffle after the December parliamentary vote, when the winning party could put forward “its own” candidate. In this byzantine way, the real successor will be unveiled.
Kommersant, on the other hand, retraced Zubkov’s career path to conclude that he will be far from a “technical” premier minister, with immediate political repercussions to follow from his selection. Given his previous position at the head of the Federal Service for Financial Monitoring, Zubkov is likely to take charge of a massive anti-corruption campaign that could become the dominant pre-electoral theme. He already has an inside perspective on the financial record of the country’s top officials and big businesses. At the very least, Zubkov can keep watch over any attempts on the part of the elites to direct funds toward some option that diverges from the Kremlin’s own vision. What is more, given the public resonance such an anti-corruption drive will bring, Zubkov himself could emerge as a viable successor, at least in the short term. “The struggle against corruption could become a worthwhile theme for any candidate looking to become Vladimir Putin’s successor, comparable in its appeal to the Chechen theme which the current president had used to boost his own popularity.”
Before news of the reshuffle broke, Vedomosti was one of the first to report on the intensifying rumors of Fradkov’s imminent departure. In the aftermath, the newspaper solicited the views of experts on the different readings of Wednesday’s events. Although opinions differed greatly, there was a consensus that Zubkov will be a stabilizing factor for the inter-clan intrigues before the elections. And although there was an impression that Zubkov’s appointment was a long-planned and carefully coordinated move, Evgeny Minchenko, director of the International Institute of Political Expertise, noted that his meeting with Putin was never shown on television, suggesting that the choice was, in fact, made at the last moment, possibly even post-factum.
If anything, the plot has only thickened after Wednesday. Zubkov’s candidacy is up for a vote in the Duma, and leading politicians are gingerly outlining their positions. No one doubts that he will be confirmed, however. The rest has been left to everyone’s imagination. |
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