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16.09.07
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Sailing To Byzantium
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By Dmitry Babich
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Valdai Club’s Members Meet Putin
President Vladimir Putin met on Friday with the group of visiting Russia experts and foreign journalists known as the Valdai Discussion Club, flying them to his Bocharov Ruchei residence in the Black Sea resort of Sochi on the presidential jet. The president kept his counsel on whom he saw as his “successor” in the Kremlin, saying only that the new president will have to be a “strong” and “self-sufficient” political figure. However, this person will not be able to disregard the legacy of the current socio-economic policy or ignore Putin himself who will, in his own words, “remain an important political factor.”
Some of the participants in the group did not understand how the future president could be a strong independent leader if Putin planned to remain in politics and influence his successor’s decisions.
“I see a certain contradiction here,” said John Laughland, one of the directors of the UK-based European Foundation. “We actually had a similar situation in Great Britain. When Margaret Thatcher left office in 1990, she said she would stay in the driver's seat. That damaged politically her fellow conservative, new Prime Minister John Major. But I hope Putin is intelligent enough not to leave an impression of pulling the strings of power after his departure.”
Some of the Russian participants, however, noticed certain intricacies in Putin’s speech. “When speaking about the future president, Putin did not use the word 'strong' very often. Instead, he pronounced the word 'self-sufficient' at least three times,” said Nikolai Zlobin, director of Russian and Eurasian programs at the Institute of World Security in Washington, D.C.
“Putin also said that the new president will have to deliver on certain expectations from society, which he said expected the new president to continue his socio-economic policy,” Zlobin added. “My interpretation of this is the following: Putin expects his successor to be a success only if he carries out a strong social policy. Putin does not expect him to be strong in the traditional sense.”
This interpretation of Putin’s words is largely supported by the fact that the president devoted the lion’s share of his talk with foreign experts to Russia's social problems, particularly the challenge of increasing the country's birthrate.
“He talked about gynecology alone for about 5 minutes before moving on to his favorite subject, the 250,000 rubles,” Zlobin said referring to Putin’s much publicized project of paying every woman who has more than one child a “mother’s capital” of 250,000 rubles (about $10,000). “He values his role in solving Russia’s social issues, so he sees the strength of his successor not in that person’s future presidential powers, but in continuing the Putin social policy.”
It remains to be seen how Putin can ensure the continuity of his social policy. Serge Schmemann, the opinion page editor of the International Herald Tribune, suggested waiting for the national convention of the pro-Kremlin United Russia party in early October. “Then we shall have a better chance of seeing who the real successor to Putin is going to be,” Schmemann said. “As for Putin’s interviews, I must tell you that they should be seen as a part of political game, which is not quite sincere anywhere. Politicians rarely tell outright lies, but when speaking they always pursue a certain goal. Putin knows full well which successor he prefers, but he wants everything to look like an open and fair competition. However, he is open about his plans to stay active in politics and to defend his past achievements.”
In response to Putin's comments, Zlobin asked the president: “Are we going to see a separate branch of power named Vladimir Putin? And are members of the ruling elite right when they say you should not leave completely because that would put your policy line in danger?” For his part, Putin just nodded his head and said that both of these assertions were probably correct.
The only topic on which the Valdai Club’s participants were in agreement was Putin's achievements during his two terms in office, which the experts glimpsed on every leg of their tour.
“There is very noticeable economic growth and construction activity in Moscow and Sochi and, almost to the same extent in Tatarstan,” Laughland said. “When you have such growth, I see no reason why the upcoming elections should not be fair. There could be a danger of an unfair election if President Putin had been obsessed with power, but I don’t think he is. He is obviously proud of his achievements, but isn’t this natural in his situation?”
Serge Schmemann struck a more cautious note when commenting on his impressions of today’s Russia. “One cannot help noticing the huge amounts of wealth that suddenly came into Russia, probably thanks to soaring oil prices,” Schmemann said. “And not only Moscow is profiting from it. Both in Tatarstan and in Sochi we could see this huge wealth playing a role. However, it is not only a blessing, but also a problem. You could get an economy of a Saudi type, where domestic production is at a disadvantage precisely because of the huge cash inflow.”
All participants remember both Putin and Acting First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov, whom the group met on the eve of their meeting with the president, addressing this problem, citing the example of Norway, with its huge stabilization fund aimed at sterilizing the cash surplus inside the country.
“I was glad to hear Ivanov talking about the Norwegian experience,” Schmemann said. “However, one should remember that this policy works best in an open, competitive political environment. Meanwhile, recent events - the sudden resignation of the prime minister - leave the impression of the old Byzantine style politics, since this came as an absolute surprise to all the Russian Kremlinologists. It was funny to see their faces at the moment when the news broke out and then hear them explaining how it was all quite natural and predictable.” |
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