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18.09.07
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Waiting For The One
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Introduced by Vladimir Frolov
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Putin has a Plan for his Successor, but it’s not what the Pundits Think
By suddenly removing the entire Russian government and appointing obscure second-tier bureaucrat Viktor Zubkov to be Russia’s new prime minister and a contender for the presidency, Vladimir Putin has once again demonstrated that he remains the only master of the political game in town.
For almost two years, since November 2005, Putin has been publicly grooming at least two or three potential presidential successors, all from the sanctum of his inner circle.
By elevating Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov to the post of First Deputy Prime Minister and giving them clear political mandates together with huge budgets to transform crucial sectors of the Russian economy and social services, he clearly signaled his preference for a public succession contest in which the Russian people would have some say by voting for one of the designated successors.
There was also a possibility that at least one of the successors – the clear front runner by Fall 2007 would be nominated by United Russia, thus setting a precedent of a party president. Ivanov, who by September 2007 has clearly moved to the front of the pack, has been rumored to be put on the United Russia electoral list for the Duma elections in December. The party’s expected resounding victory at the polls would give Ivanov’s candidacy a clear popular mandate and virtually ensure his victory in March 2008.
This scenario would have the major benefit of giving the presidential succession the legitimacy of a public contest in an established partisan framework. Of course it would not be an entirely open field – some anti-Putin candidates like Mikhail Kasyanov or Dmitry Rogozin would be squeezed out of the race, but it would have given the country the taste of competitive presidential politics. This plan is what Putin’s spin doctor Vladislav Surkov, the Kremlin’s Karl Rove, has been urging the president to endorse, and Putin for a while seemed comfortable with the idea.
But last week Putin changed his mind. He has a different plan now and he is the only one who really knows the end game.
Many pundits interpreted the appointment of Zubkov as Putin’s unwillingness to become a lame duck by endorsing a single candidate too early in the race. Were that to happen, the allegiances of the Russian political and business elites would start to shift from Putin to his likely successor, which would have put Putin in a vulnerable position. Even more so, Putin’s successor would then be able to quickly develop his own political power base and would no longer be beholden to Putin personally for his elevation to the pinnacle of Russian power. Zubkov’s appointment allows Putin to defer the designation of his successor and buys him more time.
I think Putin’s reasons are strategic, not tactical. It seems to me that he has serious doubts about all of his “successors” both in terms of their ability to lead the nation according to the course he charted and their willingness to maintain utmost loyalty to him throughout at least one full presidential term.
Putin is quite conscious of the fierce power struggle within his inner circle and fears that a seemingly open presidential field would split the power elites, with perilous effects for Putin’s political regime.
I think Putin came to the conclusion that only he personally is capable of steering Russia through these challenging times. He feels he has a duty before the Russian nation to complete the national modernization plan that he himself launched. He also thinks that the international environment for Russia is getting worse and new threats are emerging that risk serious conflicts.
I think Putin made up his mind that he has to return to the Kremlin sooner rather than later. He views himself as the Russian Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who violated a historical tradition in the United States by running for a third and fourth term. Of late, the Russian president has been a voracious reader of memoirs and analysis of Roosevelt’s presidency and his legacy for the American nation.
Zubkov’s appointment signals that Putin will not cede any of his vast powers for years to come. He will not technically violate the constitutional ban on two consecutive terms, but his comeback to the Kremlin will be rather swift. He wants a legally impeccable third term. Victor Zubkov is the ideal man to ensure this happens according to Putin’s plan.
Putin plotted his move in complete secrecy. Even his closest Kremlin advisors, including Surkov and presidential chief of staff Sergei Sobyanin (who had also viewed himself as a potential successor) were not in on the plan to elevate Zubkov. They knew about the plan to dismiss Mikhail Fradkov’s government, and Surkov’s people even leaked the story to the daily newspaper Vedomosti, presenting it as a move to clear the way for Sergei Ivanov.
This indicates that Putin has a plan he cannot trust anyone with. It also shows that he does not want to designate a successor at all.
Zubkov will run in the presidential election next March. He more or less said so when he was confirmed by the Duma (not unlike Putin himself in 1999). No doubt, the statement had been cleared with Putin in advance. He will be elected with Putin’s strong backing, although he entirely lacks charisma and does not seem like the inspirational leader of a great nation.
He does not need to inspire. His job is different – ensure Putin’s swift and unimpeded return to power. He is not a caretaker prime minister – he is a caretaker president.
There are several scenarios for Putin’s return to power. Technically, Zubkov may resign the day after the inauguration. But I think he will appoint Putin as his prime minister in May 2008. This will put Putin in an ideal position to return to the presidency at a point of his choosing. Under the Russian Constitution, when the sitting president resigns, it is the prime minister who becomes acting president until a new election can be held in three months. Were Putin to become prime minister, the fulcrum of Russian state power would naturally flow to him, with Zubkov acting in a supporting role.
Zubkov is really the only one Putin can trust with this plan. He is of advanced age, is said to have health problems and seems devoid of any political ambition. He stands above the political clans around Putin, and owes nothing to anybody but Putin.
His personal relationship with the president is unique – he is more of an elder brother and mentor than a subordinate of Putin. As a seasoned Communist Party apparatchik, Zubkov taught Putin basic bureaucratic skills when he served as Putin’s deputy in St. Petersburg mayor’s office in the early 1990s. He is the only one Putin would be comfortable having as his superior, even for a short while.
Putin is the sum of all Russian politics. He is, for all intents and purposes, the One. He feels he is on a mission from God to save the nation. He has all the reasons to justifiably think of himself as the Russian FDR.
Anyone doubting that should watch a lengthy television documentary about Franklin Delano Roosevelt and his decision to run for the third term. Coming soon to a TV near you. |
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