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13.02.08
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Russia Votes Democrat In American Elections
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Comment by Georgy Bovt
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Although it won’t really matter who wins the presidential election in the United States, the victory of Senator John ? can be perceived as the “worst case scenario.” Such is probably the near-Kremlin circle’s first impression of the course of the election campaign in the United States. It was expressed by the Duma deputy Sergey Markov, one of the most “orthodox” political analysts. He believes that a Democratic victory will put a stop to the “mad policy” of allocating money for the country’s increased military power instead of funding education, social programs or “peace tendencies” on our planet.
These statements reflect the essence of American politics in a rather simplified manner, and they wouldn’t even be worth mentioning if the Russian political elite did not really adopt the idea of President McCain being a threat to Russia. As a matter of fact, I believe that John McCain being the President of the United States is by no means the “worst case scenario.”
John McCain is notorious for a number of harsh statements about Russia and its government. He proposed banishing Russia from the “Big Eight” as punishment for its “abandonment” of democracy. Mocking the famous quote from George Bush Junior, who had once “peeped” into the soul of Vladimir Putin (during their meeting in Ljubljana that set off the fairly good personal relationship between the two presidents), he stated that in Putin’s eyes he saw just three letters – KGB, and nothing else. It was McCain who, during the course of the current campaign, managed to casually “take a stab” at Russia when answering a journalist’s question, “Are you planning to go to war with Russia?” by replying: “It depends on how it’s going to behave”.
Given such “baggage” it will likely be hard to count on having a normal relationship with the Russian president.
However, first of all, by the time the new American president is elected (if it indeed will be McCain), the Russian president will no longer be Putin, so McCain won’t get to see the same three letters. Secondly, Russian political analysts (probably in parallel with Russia’s political practice) always tend to greatly exaggerate the personification level of America’s foreign policy. McCain, Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama will be able to slightly alter its hues. But at the same time it has to be kept in mind that there is an enormous apparatus, a huge informational and analytical machine behind developing America’s foreign policy (as well as the internal one). This machine is largely driven by objective factors rather than subjective emotions and preferences, which means that there are many more premises for cooperation with today’s Russia than for confrontation with it. The lack of a similar structure in Russia (and the current Ministry of Foreign Affairs can in no way be acknowledged as a “brain center” for developing foreign policy strategy and tactics), and the transfer of activity to the presidential administration, to the level of one or two people closest to the president, are what makes Russia’s foreign policy extremely personified, when one person decides everything. But not America’s. Given these circumstances, the combination of the soft and cultured Dmitry Medvedev with John McCain or with Obama might turn out to be less quarrelsome than if the energetic and less “streamlined” Putin remained president.
It should be noted that following World War II Moscow has always had much better relationships with Republican presidents, although they were the more feared ones in the beginning. However, these fears served as an additional guarantee of precaution (for both sides), “who knows what these hotheads might do in the spur of the moment, it’s better to be careful with them”. This is characteristic of the relationship between Nikita Khrushchev and Dwight Eisenhower (Khrushchev’s first visit to the United States took place during the republican general’s second term), and also of the one between Brezhnev and Nixon, when all the fundamental documents limiting the arms race were signed. This is how Gorbachev and Reagan’s relationship was when the Cold War ended, and then, during Bush Senior’s rule, the relations between Russia and the United States became unprecedentedly warm.
Republican presidents have always been easier for Moscow. Democratic presidents were always more complicated. Primarily because Democratic presidents have always been inclined to perceive the world in a much more complicated light, and were also on a permanent “American” mission. And this mission had been much more complicated than just “exporting democracy on bayonets” the way the straightforward Bush Junior tried to practice it. The Soviet leaders (followed by Yeltsin, whose reign coincided with the presidency of the Democrat Clinton), were neither mentally nor, what’s more important, institutionally prepared for such multi-sided collaboration. For example, the Democrat Carter was too much of a moralist for them, and Bill Clinton was too sly, while it was under Clinton that America gained such technological and economic might that his successor George Bush was able to exploit for eight years to come.
Sergey Markov believes that the “most preferable” candidate for Russia would be Barack Obama, because he is capable of completely renewing American politics and restoring hope for the future, “no matter how illusory they might turn out to be.”
By the way, it is not accidental that Barack Obama is so often compared with John Kennedy in the United States. The latter also tried to revive the American dream in its widest sense. It was in the name of this dream and of spreading these ideals all over the world that the American Peace Corps was formed (today such methods of expanding influence are called “soft power”) and the American lunar studies program was launched. And also the war in Vietnam began. Precisely during the Democrat Kennedy’s presidency the United States and the USSR came closest to the possibility of nuclear war aimed at complete mutual annihilation during the Cuban Missile Crisis. |
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